Integrated Assessment Modelling of Energy Transition Pathways for the Nigerian Economy

The worldwide push for shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources has gained momentum due to concerns about greenhouse gas emissions and their detrimental effects on the environment. Nevertheless, since their discovery in 1958, fossil fuels have played a crucial role in Nigeria's economy, generating substantial revenue and foreign exchange. Any efforts to transition should be grounded in policy frameworks that take into account Nigeria's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and potential challenges. Numerous attempts have been made to create decarbonisation models for Nigeria, each varying in sector grouping, system components, modelling approaches, and pathways. The future evolution of the energy system is challenging to forecast due to multiple variables, including technological advancements, policy changes, socioeconomic factors, financial considerations, and geopolitical influences. A comprehensive assessment model was developed using the pymedeas modelling framework, incorporating Nigerian socioeconomics, energy, climate, land use, water resources, minerals, and transportation systems. The economic model was built using Nigeria Input-Output Tables (IOT) and its Leontief Matrix covering 1995 – 2014. Simulated GDP was calibrated by historical GDP performance before using the model for prediction. The model was used to assess the impact of renewable Net-zero (NZP), non-renewable (Business-As-Usual (BAU)) pathways, and gas as a transition fuel on Nigeria's socioeconomic growth using Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD). GDP growth for NZP was observed to be slow at -3% in the early years compared to an increase of about 2% in the BAU. It peaks up and outpaces BAU from 2038 onward. Nigeria should pursue a policy that allows for aggressive development of its gas resources as a transition fossil fuel, balanced by early and structured investment in centralised renewable energy infrastructures. Work provides complimentary approach to existing body of literature on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Pymedeas_ng can be used further to explore alternative pathways for decarbonisation of the Nigerian economy. Model modularity in terms of structure and functions means detailed investigation could be done by the user on a range of energy transition subjects.