Quantitative Evaluation and Driving Forces of Green Transition of Cultivated Land Use in Major Grain-Producing Areas—A Case Study of Henan Province, China

Exploring the spatiotemporal evolution and driving forces for the green transition of cultivated land (GTCL) has become an important part of the deepening research on cultivated land use transition, and has significant implications for addressing the environmental issues of agriculture development. This study took the cities in Henan province, the main grain-producing area in central China, as the research objects, and established an evaluation system for GTCL based on the subsystems of spatial, functional, and mode transition. The entropy weight method and spatial autocorrelation model were used to measure the index of GTCL and analyze the spatial pattern; then, the geographic detector model was used to explore the driving forces. The index of GTCL from 2010 to 2020 showed stable growth, exhibiting significant spatial heterogeneity with a decrease from southeast to northwest. The growth of the three subsystems of GTCL is inconsistent, with the order of index value growth being functional transition, mode transition, and spatial transition. The global Moran’s index of the index of GTCL in cities in Henan province showed positive values, indicating significant spatial dependence and spillover effects. The population density, urbanization rate, per capita GDP, and irrigation index have always been important driving forces for GTCL, and agricultural modernization would promote the GTCL in the main grain-producing areas. The research results provide a reference for exploring the path of GTCL, promoting green utilization of cultivated land and sustainable agricultural development in China’s major grain-producing areas.