Application of the Structural Equation Modeling Method for Assessing Cause-and-Effect Relationships Between Indexes of Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation Regions

The purpose of the study is to identify cause-and-effect relationships between the national goals established in the Decree of the President and the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation regions. The analysis focuses on assessing the impact of achieving the national goals on key regional development indexes and determining their role in forming strategies for socio-economic progress. Materials and methods. A system of 106 indexes related to the national goals established by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation was used as an empirical base. Factor analysis and principal component analysis methods were used to select key indexes. The main research tool is Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), which allows analyzing cause-and-effect relationships between latent variables, such as economic well-being, quality of life and social justice, demographic stability and innovative development. Results. The study identifies key indexes reflecting the main aspects of achieving national goals. A structural model was constructed, revealing statistically significant relationships between national goals and socio-economic development indexes in the regions. The model confirms the hypothesis about the significant impact of achieving national goals on socio-economic development and identifies key latent variables, which explain variations in the data. The results also highlight the importance of accounting for temporal changes and regional characteristics for forecasts that are more accurate and recommendations. Conclusion. The use of Structural Equation Modeling allowed identifying complex relationships between national goals and socio-economic indexes of the regions, confirming their significant impact on development. The results of the study can be used to optimize state policy aimed at achieving the strategic goals of socio-economic development in Russia. Additionally, directions for further research are proposed, such as cluster analysis and testing hypotheses on temporal dynamics.