Park City 2035: Analysis of Policy-Driven Urban Expansion and Heat Island Effects Under Scenario Simulation

Policy guidance plays a critical role in urban expansion and development patterns, and the scientific prediction of land use change trends and the assessment of the ecological benefits of future urban development are essential for effective policy-making. Different urban development policies not only shape the evolution of urban spatial patterns but also have a profound impact on the urban heat island effect (UHI) and cooling benefits. This study explores the impact of land use changes in Tianfu New District on the UHI and conducts multi-scenario simulations combined with different policy contexts. Focusing on Tianfu New District, four scenarios were selected: the Natural Development Scenario (ND), Economic Development Scenario (ED), Sustainable Development Scenario (SD), and Cropland Protection Scenario (CLP). To assess the impact of land use changes on the heat island effect, the study also used the InVEST urban cooling model (UCM) to evaluate the heat island mitigation effects under different scenarios. The results show that (1) the land use changes in Tianfu New District primarily went through three major stages: the natural ecological stage dominated by bare land, the rapid urbanization expansion stage, and the ecological restoration stage. (2) Under different scenarios, the land use changes differed significantly in their ability to mitigate the heat island effect. Both the Economic Development Scenario (ED) and Natural Development Scenario (ND) showed a weakening of cooling effects compared to the 2024 baseline, while the Sustainable Development Scenario (SD) and Cropland Protection Scenario (CLP) enhanced the region’s cooling capacity to some extent. Rational land use planning can promote economic development, and it can also play an important role in addressing climate change and mitigating the heat island effect. Future urbanization processes should pay more attention to integrating ecological protection and cooling strategies to ensure the achievement of sustainable development goals. This study provides scientific evidence for land use planning and policy-making in Tianfu New District and similar regions.