The Expansion of Higher Education in Colombia: Bad Students or Bad Programs?

Abstract A rapid expansion in demand for post-secondary education triggered an unprecedented boom in higher education programs in Colombia, raising concerns about their pertinence and quality. This paper shows that the penalty on student learning and labor-market outcomes of attending a recently created program is large but, to a large extent, driven by student and program selection. Using rich administrative data that match higher education school admission information, socioeconomic characteristics of the young graduates, standardized test scores pre- and post-higher education, and formal labor-market outcomes, we characterize this selection process, disentangling the relative roles of demand and supply forces. The main factor behind the learning penalty is student selection in baseline ability. In the case of labor-market outcomes, the penalty is due to a combination of student and program characteristics.