Analyzing Dispersion Characteristics of Fine Particulate Matter in High-Density Urban Areas: A Study Using CFD Simulation and Machine Learning

This study examines how urban morphology, road configurations, and meteorological factors shape fine particulate matter (PM2.5) dispersion in high-density urban environments, addressing a gap in block-level air quality analysis. While previous research has focused on individual street canyons, this study highlights the broader influence of building arrangement and height. Integrating computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations with interpretable machine learning (ML) models quantifies PM2.5 concentrations across various urban configurations. CFD simulations were conducted on different road layouts, block height configurations, and aspect ratio (AR) levels. The resulting dataset trained five ML models with Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), achieving the highest accuracy (91–95%). Findings show that road-specific mitigation strategies must be tailored. In loop-road networks, centrally elevated buildings enhance ventilation, while in grid-road networks, taller perimeter buildings shield inner blocks from arterial emissions. Additionally, this study identifies a threshold effect of AR, where values exceeding 2.5 improve PM2.5 dispersion under high wind velocity. This underscores the need for wind-sensitive designs, including optimized wind corridors and building alignments, particularly in high-density areas. The integration of ML with CFD enhances predictive accuracy, supporting data-driven urban planning strategies to optimize road layouts, zoning regulations, and aerodynamic interventions for improved air quality.