Research on Grid Operation Risk Assessment Methods Considering the Uncertainty of Distributed New Energy Sources

The integration of a large number of distributed new energy sources into the grid poses significant challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power system. Conducting research on operational risk assessment that accounts for the uncertainty of distributed new energy sources is of great importance. Firstly, based on neural network forecasting for the output of distributed new energy sources and determining the equivalent number of power units, an integrated load model that meets the requirements of risk assessment is provided online; clusters are divided according to the characteristics of distributed new energy output and safety stability influencing factors, reducing the dimensionality of uncertainty variables involved in sampling. Control measures and risk indicators that meet the requirements for stable operation are calculated for different confidence intervals, providing a basis for real-time dispatch and operation decisions. Finally, the risk assessment method proposed in this paper is analyzed and verified using an actual power grid as an example.