‘Crypto president’: Do narrative political signals drive cryptocurrency returns?
This study provides evidence on the role of the quality of political signals in predicting six major cryptocurrency asset classes. Including communications from the U.S. presidential election in 2024, we find that political news affects cryptocurrency returns in the short-term (from ∼ 2 to ∼ 4 months). For most cryptoassets, text sentiment measures demonstrate superior predictive performance compared to historical cryptocurrency time series in out-of-sample forecasts. • Analyzes the effect of political signals on cryptocurrency returns. • Political news influences cryptocurrency returns in the short term. • Political signals enhances the accuracy of Bitcoin return forecasts.
Authors
- Sami Ben Jabeur (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9242-4913)
- Yassine Bakkar (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3392-7174)
- Zouhaier Dhifaoui (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2766-1231)
- Houssein Ballouk (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9096-023X)
Institutions
- Queen's University Belfast (GB)
- Université catholique de lyon (FR)
- Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (FR)
- ESTA Ecole Supérieure des Technologies et des Affaires (FR)
- Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises
- UR CONFLUENCE: Sciences et Humanités
- Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (FR)
- University of Sousse (TN)
- Université de Lorraine (FR)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Finance research letters
- Published
- 2025-03-17
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2025.107194
- Citations
- 4
- Primary Topic
- Market Dynamics and Volatility
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 12.52