Future confidence trends in Chinese youth transitioning to adulthood: Role of subjective social status and academic performance

Abstract Future confidence, as a positive quality, demonstrates a protective effect on young people's behaviours and mental health, especially during the critical period of transition from adolescence to adulthood. However, the developmental trend of future confidence as adolescents enter early adulthood is unclear. This study used four waves of longitudinal data from the China Family Tracking Study (CFPS) 2012–2018. Totally 707 (48.7% male) samples were finalized for data analysis. The results showed that quadratic latent growth curve modelling (LGCM) is the best fit, which demonstrated an increasing and later decreasing trend. The present study found that subjective social status is positively related to the initial level of future confidence. The higher the subjective social status, the higher the initial level of future confidence, but it does not affect the subsequent trend. Academic performance was also positively correlated with initial future confidence levels, which affected subsequent trends. Specifically, the future confidence of adolescents with better academic performance exhibits a gradual decline, while the future confidence of adolescents with average and poor performance shows an initial increase followed by a decline. The findings provided an empirical basis for improving young people's confidence in the future and evidence for further research.