Exploring the Climate-Suitable Forestation Area Under Species Distribution and Growth Modeling for Larix kaempferi and Chamaecyparis obtusa in the Republic of Korea

Climate change has been transforming forest ecosystems globally, affecting the sustainability of conventional forest management practices. This study investigates the suitable forestation area (SFA) for Larix kaempferi and Chamaecyparis obtusa and their growth potential in South Korea under various climate change scenarios. Using species distribution models (SDMs) based on machine learning ensembles, we analyzed potential spatial shifts in the climatic suitability for these species. Growth models based on field data were also developed to evaluate growth variation between Köppen–Geiger climatic zones. The results indicate a substantial reduction in the SFA for L. kaempferi, with its habitat range confined to high-altitude regions due to rising temperatures. In contrast, the forestation potential for C. obtusa is predicted to expand nationwide, particularly in inland areas, under climate change scenarios. However, extreme increases in temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceeding 600 ppm may inhibit growth, highlighting the need for the development of adaptive management strategies. This study provides useful information for climate-resilient forestation planning by combining growth-weighted suitability indices with projected habitat shifts. These findings emphasize the importance of prioritizing high-altitude conservation zones for L. kaempferi and employing C. obtusa for inland afforestation as a means to ensure sustainable forest management and carbon neutrality objectives.