Global burden of malaria before and after the COVID-19 pandemic based on the global burden of disease study 2021

Malaria poses significant public health challenges and huge disease and economic burdens across the world, notably in low-income countries. Although great strides have been achieved, the COVID-19 pandemic hinders the progress towards global elimination of malaria. This study utilizes data from the global burden of disease study 2021 data sources to assess trends in incidence and mortality of, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to malaria before and after the global COVID-19 pandemic, and projects the incidence of malaria in 2030 at international, regional and national levels. The age-standardized incidence of malaria declined from 3789.28 per 100,000 populations in 2010 to 3332.96 per 100,000 population in 2019, followed by a rapid increase to 3485.27 per 100,000 populations in 2021. The estimated annual percentage change was 2.26% (95% confidence interval: 1.84-2.68%) from 2019 to 2021, suggesting a significant acceleration in the increasing rate compared to previous years. The numbers of DALYs lost and death due to malaria also increased in 2021. Children under 5 years of age and regions with low socio-demographic index were disproportionately affected with the highest burden of malaria associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic is projected to lead to an additional 472.59 malaria cases per 100,000 populations by 2030. The global COVID-19 pandemic has posed substantial challenges to the global malaria elimination program as revealed by increasing incidence, death and DALYs lost across the world.