Modelling the impact on a local mental health system of previously implemented care programs: the experience of assertive outreach teams in Bizkaia (Spain)

The development of the expert-knowledge-based causal model from an ecosystem perspective was helpful in combining information from different levels, from nano to macro, to identify the components in the system likely to be most affected by a potential policy intervention, such as the closure of AOTs. It was also able to illustrate the interaction between the MH system components over time and the impact of the potential changes on the technical performance of the system. Such approaches have potential future application in assisting with service planning and decision-making in other health systems and socio-economic contexts.