The Frequency of Droughts in the Rasht Valley (Tajikistan) Under Climate Change

The geographical location of Central Asia, including the Republic of Tajikistan, makes the region highly vulnerable to various climate-related natural disasters, such as floods, droughts and mudslides, which significantly affect sustainable development and people's living conditions, including their access to adequate food and drinking water. Droughts, especially in their extreme forms, accelerate the development of desertification, the main cause of which is excessive anthropogenic pressure, which increases under conditions of prolonged and intense drought. In this context, the issue of developing and improving modern systems for monitoring and forecasting droughts, as well as preparing for and mitigating their consequences, becomes extremely important. The problems of droughts occurrence in two districts of Tajikistan (Rasht, Lakhsh) with developed agricultural industry depending on meteorological conditions with wide application of standardized drought indices are considered. It was found that the occurrence of drought in a specific area does not have certain regularity, but is determined by a combination of meteorological parameters. The dynamics of the Standardised precipitation index and the Standardised precipitation and evapotranspiration index in Rasht district for the period 1950-2023 is characterised by a constant trend. The results of studies of meteorological conditions of Lakhsh district for the period 1961- 2021 to identify the possibility of drought occurrence are presented. The trend of the drought indices shows an increase in humidity over the period 1961-2021. Despite the positive trend in humidity over the period considered, extreme and severe droughts of varying duration have been observed.