An Analysis of Hydrodynamic Models and the Agriculture-Climate Change Relationship in Rio Grande Do Sul Floods

The May 2024 flood in Rio Grande do Sul reveals the Brazilian government’s reluctance to adopt a proactive approach to disaster management. Porto Alegre’s City Council engaged the American firm Álvarez & Marsal, known for its work on Brumadinho (Minas Gerais, Brazil) and Hurricane Katrina (US), yet no definitive flood prediction model has been implemented. Machine houses are ill-equipped to function during floods, several rain stations remain inactive, and crucial infrastructure needs repairs based on comprehensive flood studies. Communities near the river, particularly the Guaíba Islands, are unprepared, lacking environmental training and guidance on data-sharing with Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul - UFRGS researchers. City Council reports incorrectly blame poor maintenance for the crisis, ignoring issues related to subpar materials and poor practices by Municipal Department of Water and Sewage - DMAE technicians. Hydrodynamic models overlook the flood risks posed by the anticipated rise in chemical fertilizer imports from 65% to 83% this year, according to MB Agribusiness. To bridge these gaps, this study introduces the CKI (Culture-Knowledge-Intelligence) model to enhance communication between academia, society, and government. Brazil's isolation due to its linguistic (only Portuguese language in a Spanish Speaking Continent) and cultural insularity exacerbates its infrastructure challenges, highlighting the need for strategic knowledge management. The chosen Hydropol2D forecast model is re-assessed for not considering the impact of agriculture on hydrology and complementary models are presented, in particular the coupled SWAT+GWFlow model.