Crisis management of IT-companies’ software: application of risk analysis methods under sanctions

Under the current conditions of sanction pressure and restricted access to critically important technological resources, IT companies face increased uncertainty in software development, updates, and maintenance. The aim of this article is to propose a comprehensive approach to crisis management of software based on systematic risk analysis. Key challenges arising from external constraints are examined, and qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods are analyzed, including scenario analysis, simulation modeling, and statistical approaches to estimating the probability of adverse events. It is proposed to integrate methods borrowed from investment portfolio management to enhance project resilience under sanctions. The practical significance of this study lies in the development of recommendations for diversifying software suppliers and sources, transitioning to domestic or open-source solutions, and applying automation and artificial intelligence technologies for timely failure detection and mitigation of negative consequences. The proposed approaches and tools are aimed at strengthening IT companies’ crisis resilience, improving the reliability of their project solutions, and laying the foundation for effective managerial decision-making in the context of geopolitical instability.