MODELLING AND FORECASTING OF JOWAR PRODUCTION BEHAVIOR OF INDIA AS WELL AS INSTABILITY AND DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS

The present investigation was an attempt to study the area, production, and productivity behavior of jowar in India and the factors affecting it from 1950 to 2020.The best-fit ARIMA models were chosen based on the autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function at different lags, and their forecasting performances were chosen based on their minimum AIC, RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and maximum R2 values.Model parameters were estimated using Microsoft Excel and the Gretl software.The results indicated that the ARIMA (1,1,2) model for area, the ARIMA (1,1,2) model for production, and the ARIMA (1,1,5) yield model was found to be appropriate for predicting the future of jowar in India with a 95% accuracy level.There are also three parts to the entire time.We looked at the sources of development and instability during Period I (1950-1973), Period II (1974-1997), and Period III (1998-2020).The highest levels of yield, output, and area instability occurred during Period III.Over time, the area's contribution to production change has greatly increased while the yields have declined.Additionally, this study will aid in the development of sound policies about the jowar production scenario.