Natural Fluxes of Greenhouse Gases in the Northern Hemisphere from the CMIP6 Ensemble of Models and Their Contribution to Climate Change in the 21st Century

To assess the ability of modern global Earth system models to take into account the natural exchange of carbon, data from the CMIP6 project ensemble of models for the 21st century are analyzed. Estimates of the impact of natural and anthropogenic flows of carbon dioxide and methane from Russia, China, Canada, and the United States on possible changes in the global surface temperature of the atmosphere in the 21st century under various scenarios of anthropogenic impact using the cumulative temperature potential have been obtained. It is shown that changes in climate conditions under different scenarios of anthropogenic impacts can strongly influence the indicators of the climatic contribution of greenhouse gas fluxes, especially over long time horizons.