Assessment of livelihood vulnerability to climate change among tribal communities in Chhindwara and Dhar district, Central India

Climate change poses significant challenges to marginalised communities, particularly in regions with highly vulnerable populations like rural and tribal communities. This study aims to assess the livelihood vulnerability of tribal households to climate change impacts in the Chhindwara and Dhar districts in Central India, identifying key determinants and geographical variations in vulnerability. Primary data collection involved a multistage sampling procedure where a household survey was conducted across both districts, yielding a sample size of 535 respondents. The climatic data was collected from the India Meteorological department from 1954 to 2023. This study employs a mixed method, including innovative trend analysis for shifts in climatic patterns, standardised precipitation index-1 (SPI-1) for evaluating wet and dry conditions, LVI-IPCC framework applied using survey data to assess vulnerability, and multiple linear regression (MLR) model to determine the determinants of vulnerability. The results indicate significant changes in rainfall and temperature patterns in both regions, indicating increased vulnerability among tribal communities. SPI-1 analysis highlights the shift in precipitation patterns, with implications for agriculture and water availability. The LVI-IPCC results reveal a moderate level of vulnerability among surveyed households, with Dhar exhibiting higher vulnerability than Chhindwara. Furthermore, LVI-IPCC results were validated using other vulnerability assessment approaches. The MLR analysis highlights the significant influence of key determinants, such as primary income source, extreme weather events, access to safe drinking water, and livelihood strategies, on vulnerability, emphasising the importance of addressing socioeconomic disparities and enhancing adaptive capacity. Integrating primary and secondary data enables an inclusive investigation of vulnerability determinants and geographical variations within the study area. It offers evidence-based policy recommendations for augmenting resilience and encouraging sustainable development among tribal communities facing climate change challenges.