Application of the Z-Information-Based Scenarios for Energy Transition Policy Development

The development of an energy transition policy that ensures a rational combination of the requirements of sustainable development and the country’s priorities is a key factor determining the success of its development. The complexity and importance of this task increase in the case of countries in which oil and natural gas export revenues play a key role in the formation of the budget and development of the country. In this paper, the solution to this problem is studied using the example of Azerbaijan. Considering that the task requires addressing the uncertainty and limitations of available information and statistical data, we used an approach based on the use of fuzzy scenarios and expert information. Scenarios have been described using linguistic variables and the formalism of Z-numbers. Z-numbers allow us to simultaneously formalize uncertainty and reliability in the information. Solving the problem involves integrating approximate methods of Z-reasoning and multi-criteria decision-making. This approach considers economic, social, environmental, and technological criteria and allows for the generation, analysis, and evaluation of transition scenarios. The results obtained demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology for constructing energy transition scenarios for countries producing and exporting oil and gas. The solution suggests a moderate increase in natural gas and hydropower production, along with a significant rise in solar and wind energy production. The results highlight the effectiveness of a rational combination of traditional and renewable energy sources during the transition period. The rule base developed in this article can be adapted to account for the priorities and constraints of a specific oil- and gas-producing and -exporting country, and the fuzzy scenarios approach can be successfully applied to address the transition challenge.