MULTI-DIMENSIONAL FREIGHT AND TRADE CAPACITY ANALYSIS – A CASE STUDY ON BURHAN-KHUNJERAB ROUTE IN CHINA-PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR (CPEC)

Trade corridors are critical for fostering global economic growth, reducing transportation costs, and enhancing regional connectivity, yet increasing trade volumes have imposed significant demands on these infrastructures. This study focuses on the Burhan-Khunjerab route, a pivotal section of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which connects China to global markets through Pakistan. Despite its strategic importance, the route faces challenges including mountainous terrain and limited capacity, raising concerns about its ability to accommodate future freight demands. The study employs a combination of capacity analysis and statistical modeling to estimate the freight-handling capacity of the Burhan-Khunjerab route under the CPEC scenario, specifically for the horizon year 2035. Using Level of Service (LOS) 'C' as the performance benchmark, the analysis identifies the Thakot-Raikot section as the critical bottleneck, capable of handling 9,519 additional trucks per day. Statistical models further reveal that an annual increase of 1 million US dollars in Pakistan’s trade corresponds to a 1.3-million-ton-km annual increase in road freight, while a 1-million-ton rise in trade volume results in a 1,684-million-ton-km increase. By 2035, the route is estimated to handle 7.93% of China’s total trade in monetary terms and 6.39% in tonnage. The findings emphasize the importance of targeted infrastructure improvements and multimodal integration to optimize freight capacity. Policymakers are urged to address critical bottlenecks and invest in capacity management strategies. Globally, this study highlights the transformative potential of trade corridors like CPEC in driving regional integration and global economic growth while offering a replicable framework for analyzing similar emerging trade routes.