Identification, Attribution, and Mitigation of Agricultural–Ecological Functional Conflicts in Urban Agglomerations

Amid the increasing demands for ecological civilization and food security, addressing conflicts between agricultural and ecological functions has become a critical priority in spatial governance. Focusing on the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Cluster, this study establishes a multi-indicator evaluation framework and employs a weighted model to measure agricultural and ecological functions. The ESDA model characterizes the spatial distribution and clustering patterns of conflicts, while the RF model identifies the key drivers and underlying mechanisms. The results indicate the following: (1) Agricultural functions exhibit a “center-weak, periphery-strong” spatial pattern, with high-function zones covering over 60% of the area, whereas ecological functions are primarily concentrated in low-function zones, with high-function areas localized in the northeast. Overall, agro-ecological functionality declined from 2000 to 2020, accompanied by increased gradient differentiation. (2) High-conflict zones decreased by 7.73% during the study period, while medium-conflict and conflict-free zones expanded. Spatially, a trend of “peripheral mitigation of high conflicts and central expansion of low conflicts” emerged. (3) Natural environmental factors were the primary drivers of conflict dynamics, while land use factors gained significance over time. Elevation and slope dominated in 2000 and 2020, whereas land use economic density and crop planting area were more influential in 2010. Synergistic effects were observed, with slope–precipitation interactions providing the strongest explanatory power. This study offers empirical insights into managing agricultural–ecological conflicts, thereby contributing to enhanced spatial governance and sustainable development practices.