Mapping Potential High-Yield Areas for Finfish Mariculture Using Physiological Models

Mapping potential areas for finfish mariculture, particularly high-yield regions, is crucial for the proper utilization of marine space and global food security. Physiological models (growth performance models) that consider the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the marine environment are a potentially effective approach to achieving this goal. In the present study, we developed an integrated model that combines the thermal performance curve and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the marine environment to map the global high-yield potential mariculture areas for 27 commercial finfish species. Our results showed that the current sizes of the potentially suitable areas (achieving 50% of the maximum growth rate for at least six months annually) and high-yield areas (achieving 75% of the maximum growth rate throughout a year) are (8.00 ± 0.30) × 10 6 and (5.96 ± 0.13) × 10 6 km 2 , respectively. Currently, the sizes of suitable and high-yield areas for warm-water mariculture fish are larger than those for other species. The growth potential of suitable mariculture areas is higher at mid and low latitudes than at high latitudes. Under the two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), the sizes of both suitable and high-yield areas will increase by 2050. However, there is the potential for finfish mariculture to respond differently to climate change among species and regions, and cold-water fish may benefit from global warming. Overall, the global potential for suitable high-yield mariculture areas continues to increase, making finfish mariculture an important contributor to global food security.