Assessing the Modernization of Higher Education in China’s Eight Ethnic Minority Provinces: A Decade-Long Panel Data Analysis (2012–2021)

The pursuit of high-quality higher education in ethnic minority regions is of paramount importance in the contemporary era. As China advances towards its distinctive model of higher education modernization, the imperative for a robust evaluation framework for higher education modernization becomes increasingly evident. Achieving synchronized educational modernization across all ethnic groups is not only a persistent and evolving facet of the historical national strategy of “Four Modernizations in Synchronization” but also a critical milestone and salient indicator of concurrent progress in higher education modernization across ethnic minority regions in the present context. From 2012 to 2020, the nation executed a nine-year strategic plan aimed at revitalizing higher education in the central and western regions. This study, employing literature analysis and grounded in the five core functions of universities, utilizes a comprehensive dataset spanning a decade (2012 to 2021) to construct a bespoke evaluation index system for the modernization of higher education in ethnic minority regions. Through quantitative assessments, this study evaluates the trajectory of modernization in higher education development in these regions over the past decade, thereby offering indirect insights into the efficacy of the national initiative to rejuvenate higher education in the central and western regions. The findings indicate a fluctuating yet upward trend in the overall level of higher education development across the eight ethnic minority regions. Nevertheless, substantial disparities persist when compared with other provinces. Notably, Tibet and Guizhou have demonstrated significant growth, with respective growth rates of 5.533 and 4.341. Moreover, an in-depth analysis leveraging the grey GM(1,1) prediction model projects the future developmental trajectories of higher education in ethnic minority regions. To ensure the sustainable advancement of higher education in ethnic minority regions, supplementary policy interventions are indispensable. This entails fostering a conducive environment of resonance and coordinated development between ethnic economies and higher education, thereby nurturing a harmonious relationship that propels progress.