Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in the Planting Industry: Evidence from China

This study systematically analyzes the temporal variation characteristics, driving mechanisms, and decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic output in China’s planting industry. Using a dynamic panel model, LMDI decomposition, and coupling coordination model, it explores the main influencing factors of carbon emissions and their dynamic evolution. The findings reveal that from 2003 to 2022, carbon emissions in the planting industry exhibited a phased trend of rising first and then declining, with a limited overall reduction. Carbon emissions demonstrated significant path dependency. Planting industry output and agricultural investment were identified as the primary driving factors for carbon emissions, while energy intensity and mechanization levels had significant inhibitory effects. Decoupling analysis showed that weak decoupling dominates, with strong decoupling achieved only in specific regions and periods, highlighting significant regional disparities. Coupling coordination analysis indicated that the coordination between positive driving factors and carbon emissions improved annually, whereas the coordination related to rural electricity consumption declined in recent years. This study suggests that promoting precision agriculture and clean energy technologies, optimizing agricultural investment structures, implementing region-specific policies, and enhancing land resource planning can help us achieve the coordinated goals of high-quality agricultural development and carbon reduction. The findings provide theoretical insights and policy recommendations for low-carbon agricultural development and serve as a reference for global agricultural green transformation.