Investigating the supply–demand gap of farmland ecosystem services to advance sustainable development goals (SDGs) in Central Asia

Farmland ecosystem services (FESs) are closely intertwined with the achievement of sustainable development goals (SDGs), which aim to maintain ecological balance, enhance agricultural productivity, and increase overall human well-being. However, the FES supply demand gaps in rainfed and irrigated farmlands, as well as their relative contributions to SDGs, remain uncertain. Data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were employed to determine the spatiotemporal variations in FES supply demand gaps across Central Asia from 1995 to 2099. Then, the natural and socioeconomic factors influencing the coordination of the FES supply and demand were explored. Finally, SDG scores of farmland ecosystems in Central Asia were calculated and predicted under the SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios. The research results revealed that grain production and soil conservation services demonstrated a considerable supply surplus and a notable demand deficit and that the water yield exhibited a considerable imbalance (supply<demand) in irrigated farmland. Additionally, we found that population density, temperature, precipitation and topography influenced the supply demand relationships of FESs in Central Asia. Importantly, the contributions of the major FESs to the SDGs were as follows: SDG2 (35.52 %–38.14 %) > SDG15 (34.51 %–36.74 %) > SDG6 (27.88 %–30.65 %). During the 2050 s and 2090 s, the overall SDG index values of agroecosystems in Central Asia were projected to decrease, particularly under the SSP585 scenario (68.11 %–66.37 %). This decline was especially notable for SDG14 and SDG12 in the upper Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. To promote these SDGs in the above regions and achieve sustainable agricultural development, policymakers should prioritize balancing the supply and demand for water production and sand fixation services. • Water yield showed an imbalance with high demand and low supply in irrigated farmland. • Population density, temperature, precipitation, and elevation influenced the supply-demand dynamics of FESs. • Under the SSP585 scenario, the overall SDG scores declined by 66.11 %–68.37 % across agricultural land. • FESs contributed most to SDG2-, followed by SDG15- and SDG6-.