Decoding Serbia’s Democratic Backsliding: EU Conditionality Meets Domestic Realities

Abstract The article investigates the extent to which EU conditionality and domestic factors have determined the Europeanisation path of Serbia, in light of its democratic backsliding and stalemate in its EU accession process. To explore this dynamic, the external incentives model (EIM), a widely recognised rationalist theoretical model analysing Europeanisation in candidate states, forms the theoretical basis of this study. Building on a rich literature applying this model, including EIM’s revisions by its original authors and subsequent improvements by other scholars, the study first aims to elucidate certain aspects of the model. Special attention is given to the dynamic nature of the EU accession process and the uncertainty faced by actors in EU candidate states regarding the prospects of EU membership, recognising that top-down and bottom-up factors often operate in concert rather than isolation. Process tracing and Bayesian reasoning are then employed to assess the contribution of these factors in explaining the observed democratic regression in Serbia. The analysis reveals mechanisms related to Serbia’s geostrategic interests, including its territorial integrity, and the overall decline in the credibility of the EU accession process, which have contributed to the deadlock in the accession process. Data are drawn from a number of primary and secondary sources including in-depth semi-structured interviews with EU and Serbian actors, EU, national, and international organisations’ documents and reports, the V-Dem and Freedom House databases, local and European media, and relevant scholarly literature.