System dynamics modeling of the manufacturing industrial ecosystem – a case study from China

Purpose This study aims to construct a system dynamics model for industrial ecosystems, focusing on the sustainable development of the manufacturing industry. It seeks to promote coordinated development among industry, society and nature by integrating interactions among stakeholders, supporting institutions and the external environment. Design/methodology/approach This study utilizes data from China’s manufacturing industry between 2011 and 2018 and employs a system dynamics model to analyze the key factors influencing the sustainable development of the manufacturing ecosystem. Additionally, policy recommendations are proposed based on the synergistic effects of factors within three distinct subsystems driving sustainable development. Findings The results demonstrate a trade-off between industrial growth and environmental sustainability. Financial development and technology import drive output and innovation but increase pollution emission and energy consumption. Resource recycling is key to reducing pollution emissions and fostering greener ecosystems. While technological adoption and talent boost product growth, they fail to lower environmental impact. Macro-environmental improvements promote growth but add ecological pressure. Therefore, policies should focus on green technologies, resource recycling, environmental assessments and targeted funding for sustainable innovation to achieve balanced industrial development and ecological sustainability. Originality/value This paper presents a generic system dynamics model for evaluating and guiding the sustainable development of the manufacturing industry. It provides valuable insights for policymakers to identify key factors for sustainable manufacturing development, understand the evolution of the industrial ecosystem and enhance economic sustainability at the industrial level.