Analysis of the impact of Sichuan Province's electricity demand forecast and electrification rate on achieving the dual carbon target

The establishment of a modern industrial system, accomplishment of the "dual carbon" objectives, and enhancement of electrification levels constitute the important boundary conditions for energy and power demand. Taking Sichuan Province as a case study, this paper first reviews the development trend of the province's power demand and analyzes the factors influencing the long-term power demand. Then, it constructs an "economy-energy-power-environment" coupled forecasting model for energy and power demand, establishing baseline and high electrification scenarios to predict the province's energy demand, electricity demand, and sector-specific electrification rates from 2025 to 2060. Finally, it discusses the trends in carbon emissions under different electrification targets. The study finds that: (1) The upgrading of industrial structure and the enhancement of electrification levels significantly boost the growth of the province's electricity demand, with projected total electricity consumption reaching 580.5–603.4 billion kWh by 2030 and 872.2–989.3 billion kWh by 2060; (2) Under the same total energy consumption and power supply structure, the high electrification scenario achieves carbon peak earlier, by 2028, with a peak reduction of approximately 2.4%, and a total carbon emission reduction of about 50% by 2060, which contributes to the achievement of carbon neutrality goals.