Systematic evaluation of renewable energy base system based on stochastic time series production simulation

Under the ‘dual-carbon’ objective, the large energy base in the west is dominated by renewable energy sources, which have a high degree of uncertainty compared with conventional thermal and hydropower. In the current system evaluation, it is mainly dominated by single-level value evaluation, and lacks the whole-link value evaluation that considers system flexibility, safety and other factors. This paper takes the Gobi Desert as the research object. Firstly, an evaluation method for quantifying the value of renewable systems is proposed from a multidimensional perspective, and then an optimisation model based on stochastic time series production simulation and an evaluation model for quantifying the value of the system are constructed with respect to the stochastic uncertainty of renewable output and the source-network-storage operating characteristics of the system under different scenarios. Finally, the results of system value quantification show that this method is able to adequately reflect the generation capacity and transmission scale of renewable bases under the consideration of renewable sources uncertainty, which verifies the feasibility of the method.