A study on the influencing factors of carbon emissions and peaking path in Liaoning province based on the STIRPAT model

As global concern over climate change continues to grow, accurately predicting regional carbon emissions becomes crucial for guiding policy-making and achieving carbon reduction targets. This study takes the Liaoning Province as the research object, first analyzing the factors affecting regional carbon emissions. On this basis, the scenario analysis method is combined with the STIRPAT model. Finally, the validity of the model data is verified through a specific example in the Liaoning Province, and the carbon emission trends under different socio-economic development scenarios are predicted. The study found that with effective policy guidance and technological innovation, the Liaoning Province is expected to achieve an early peak in carbon emissions, providing a reference case for other regions.