Evaluation method of provincial power grid power supply gap based on multi-timescale production simulation

Against the background of massive access to highly volatile wind and solar power resources, the risk of supply/demand balance in power system is aggravated, and power supply gap is more likely to occur. Given this background, a power supply gap assessment method based on multi-timescale production simulation is proposed to quantify possible power supply gap and guide dispatch planning. Firstly, the extraction method for scenarios of sustained extreme output of wind and solar power from historical data at weekly time scale are proposed. Then for the provincial power system, the weekly, day ahead and intraday multi-timescale production simulation model is proposed considering the complex grid structure. Finally, considering the wind and solar power uncertainty, a power supply risk index is proposed to quantify the potential power supply gap, and combined with the power purchased from the trans-provincial tie-line, the power supply gap assessment indicator is further proposed. Case study on the transmission system in a province of China is performed, and the simulation results show that the proposed method can effectively quantify the power supply gap at different time scales in the provincial power system under extreme scenarios.