Stochastic reserve evaluation of aggregated thermostatically controlled loads and energy storage system

The failure of the communication system has an undeniable impact on the response scheduling instructions of the aggregation. Therefore, the stochastic reserve evaluation method of the aggregation considering the state of the communication system of aggregation is proposed. Firstly, the operational model of the thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) and energy storage system (ESS) is established. Based on the model, the reserve mechanism of the TCLs and ESS and the reserve model are established; Secondly, the stochastic reserve evaluation method of the aggregation considering the impact of communication failures is proposed, which could effectively quantify the probability characteristics of the reserve capabilities of the aggregation; Finally, taking an aggregation as an example for analysis, the reserve with a probability of 99% is approximately 80% without considering communication system failure states, which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.