Carbon peak path of provincial power industry based on generalized Divisi's index and Monte Carlo method

To study the driving factors of carbon emissions in the provincial power industry and the path to carbon peak, and promote low-carbon development in the power industry, it is necessary to examine the relationship between carbon emissions and power output in the power industry, and conduct scenario analysis based on this. This article takes carbon emissions in the power industry as the research object, constructs a five factor generalized Divisi's index model (GDIM), quantitatively analyzes the contribution of energy supply and demand to the evolution of carbon emissions in the power industry, and conducts dynamic scenario analysis of carbon emissions in the power industry based on Monte Carlo simulation technology. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2021, the factors promoting carbon emissions are energy consumption and energy structure, while carbon intensity and energy intensity are the factors promoting carbon emissions reduction.