A comparison of the meridional meandering of extratropical precipitation during boreal winter: eddy momentum flux versus Eulerian storm tracks

The latitudinal distribution of winter extratropical precipitation is often regarded as being determined by the location and intensity of the storm track. Here, we compare the precipitation variability associated with the meridional eddy momentum flux (EMF) with that associated with an Eulerian storm track measure. Observations show that when the midlatitude EMF is anomalously poleward, the occurrence of moderate-to-heavy precipitation (1–33 mm day-1) increases between 45°N and 70°N, while decreasing between 25°N and 45°N. This shift occurs mostly downstream of the climatological storm track maximum, with generally greater precipitation anomalies compared to those associated with storm track changes. The shift is tied to changes in horizontal moisture transport primarily by planetary scale waves. These results suggest that, in addition to the storm track intensity, dynamics of the horizontal wave tilts which affect the EMF intensity need to be considered when projecting future changes in precipitation variability.