Disentangling the effects of various risk factors and trends in lung cancer mortality

Lung cancer is a leading cause of mortality in oncological classifications, yet the impact of various risk factors on lung cancer mortality (LCM) in non-smokers remains unclear. This study aims to weigh out the diverse impact of multiple risk factors on LCM rates and identify trends in LCM rates worldwide. We initially employed Random Forest Tree (RFT) and Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR) to identify common primary factors influencing LCM. After eliminating four common primary factors, a comparative analysis between partial and Pearson correlations was conducted to filter out significant factors in the correlations between risk factors and LCM rates across 204 countries from 2005 to 2019. The findings show that excluding the impacts of occupational exposure to arsenic, smoking, residential radon, occupational exposure to silica, occupational exposure to asbestos, high systolic blood pressure, secondhand smoke, child wasting, and alcohol use had a considerably greater impact on LCM than particular matter pollution (PM2.5). Furthermore, a Multiple Joinpoint Regression analysis identified increasing trends of LCM rates in the 142 countries (e.g., China and India); decreasing trends in 38 countries (e.g., Denmark and Norway), and stable trends in 24 countries (e.g., Sudan, Mali, and Australia). This research suggests that in addition to considering the effects of occupational exposure to arsenic, smoking, residential radon, and occupational exposure to silica on LCM rates, occupational exposure to asbestos, high systolic blood pressure, secondhand smoke, child wasting, and alcohol use should be considered in lung cancer prevention strategies, especially in countries with increasing trends of LCM rates.