Estimation of the real production income of the Embin deposits of the Republic of Kazakhstan

This article addresses the issue of assessing the impact of oil production volume, oil delivery and sales, the number of wells, internal and external oil prices, and real capital investments on the real production income from the Embin deposits in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The study aims to determine the statistical significance of key economic factors, such as the volume of oil production, delivery, and export sales, the real price of oil on domestic and external markets, the number of wells in the production fund, and real capital investments. The study found that a one-percent increase in the volume of oil sales for export, all else being equal, would lead to an increase in real production income in the range of 0,23 % to 0,67 %, based on four panel data models constructed for the period from 2019 to 2023. The research sample consisted of 140 observations. The results also indicated that a one-percent increase in the real export price of oil, all else being equal, would lead to an increase in real production income in the range of 0,.19 % to 1,41 %. The model also identified two negative factors: the number of wells in the production fund and real capital investments. These factors require significant financial expenditures, and it is assumed that, in the current period, real production income may decrease due to the lengthy recovery time required for these investments.