Transient and Seasonal Response of Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature and Antarctic Sea Ice to Stratospheric Ozone Recovery

Abstract This study investigates the response of the Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and Antarctic sea ice to stratospheric ozone recovery, focusing on the time scale and seasonality of the response. The response is quantified by contrasting two twenty-first-century ensemble simulations conducted with the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry–Climate Model: one with decreasing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and the other with fixed 2005 levels of ODSs. In our simulations, the response to ozone recovery has large seasonal variations, but it does not show a two-time-scale behavior. Ozone recovery causes Southern Ocean SST warming in austral summer and cooling in other seasons. Ozone recovery mitigates Antarctic sea ice decrease in the twenty-first century in austral spring, fall, and winter. However, the summer Antarctic sea ice extent is not affected by ozone recovery despite strong surface warming, because the warming occurs north of the sea ice edge. The absence of summer sea ice response likely results from the model bias of underestimating summer sea ice climatology. The summer surface warming response is associated with cooling directly below the mixed layer. Temperature tendency budget analysis shows that reduced vertical mixing plays a critical role in driving this vertical dipole temperature response. We also find that the impact of the vertical temperature advection on SST depends not only on changes in upwelling but also on changes in vertical temperature gradient. Significance Statement We study the climate impact of the projected stratospheric ozone recovery in the twenty-first century on Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and Antarctic sea ice using coupled atmosphere–ocean–chemistry model simulations. The model results show that ozone recovery causes weakening of surface winds over the Southern Ocean, which leads to warming of the Southern Ocean surface in summer and cooling in other seasons. Ozone recovery also reduces Antarctic sea ice loss in the twenty-first century. We quantify the relative importance of meridional and vertical advection and vertical mixing in determining the upper Southern Ocean temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery. These results improve our understanding of how changes in surface winds affect the Southern Ocean temperature, circulation, and Antarctic sea ice.