Forecasting Entrepreneurial and Employability Opportunities in the UAE: A Government Finance Analysis

This study aims to forecast future entrepreneurial and employability opportunities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) through an analysis of Government Finance Statistics. Specifically, it examines the impact of transactions in non-financial assets, financial assets, and liabilities on the gross operating balance to identify potential areas for business growth. The research explores various business activities, including investments in non-financial assets, lending and borrowing, acquisition of financial assets, and the incurrence of liabilities. Using a time series analysis approach, this study employs quarterly data from 2012 Q1 to 2023 Q3 to estimate short- and long-term effects using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The findings highlight significant future investment opportunities in non-financial assets, as well as in the lending and borrowing sectors. Additionally, the analysis of financial assets and liabilities reveals that while the incurrence of liabilities positively influences the gross operating balance, the acquisition of financial assets has a significant negative impact. Based on these findings, the study recommends that entrepreneurs and policymakers prioritise investments in non-financial assets and strategically manage liabilities to maximise economic opportunities. Furthermore, policymakers should introduce regulatory reforms to enhance the attractiveness of financial asset investments, ensuring a more positive contribution to the UAE’s economic sustainability. Future research should further investigate the underlying factors contributing to the negative impact of financial asset acquisitions on the gross operating balance. Additionally, further studies should identify the most promising non-financial asset investment opportunities to support sustainable entrepreneurial growth in the UAE.