Binary Role Theory and Modeling the Superpower Confrontation in Ukraine

Abstract On February 24, 2022, Russian forces invaded Ukraine. Washington responded with economic sanctions and significant military arms and intelligence in the most dangerous situation between the two superpowers since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. Our analysis presents models from binary role theory, which allow us to identify the respective roles of the United States and Russia as agents in a strategic dyad during the diagnostic and prescriptive stages of the foreign policy decision-making process. Our empirical focus is on crucial decision-making episodes bracketed chronologically by two relatively big decisions: the United States decision in 1994 to invite former Warsaw Pact member states to join NATO and the Russian decision in 2022 to invade Ukraine. Our general approach is inspired by the goal of “bridging the gap” between academic and policy analyses regarding the conduct of foreign policy with a focus on the exercise of social power in world politics.