Ecosystem services and their drivers under different watershed- management patterns in the western Chinese Loess Plateau

• Land use types on the Loess Plateau exhibit a strong dependence on topographic features. • ESs were temporally stable but showed spatial heterogeneity across different WMPs. • The effects of comprehensive factors and 18 sub-factors on ESs were analyzed across various WMPs. • We identified key drivers of ESs across different WMPs to optimize management. Investigating ecosystem services (ESs) in fragile ecological regions is vital for optimizing land resource efficiency and guiding multi-objective decision-making. However, research on ESs and their drivers under various watershed-management patterns (WMPs) remains limited. To fill the gap, this study focuses on China’s western Loess Plateau, examining four typical WMPs—grassland restoration, terrace farming, forest restoration, and mixed-type watersheds—with six watersheds per pattern. Using multi-source data, we quantified land use and ESs, including soil conservation (SC), water yield (WY), and carbon sequestration (NPP). A projection pursuit regression model was employed assessed the impacts of four comprehensive factors (climate, topography, landscape, and vegetation cover) and 18 sub-factors on ESs, identifying key drivers in different WMPs. The results showed that (1) Land use distribution changes varying by elevation, slope, and aspect. (2) From 2010 to 2020, land use have significant trends of grassland converting to terraces, and both converting to forests. (3) ESs improved, with climate driving WY across all WMPs, while topography influences SC. NPP was controlled by climate in grassland and terraced watersheds, landscape in forests, and both in mixed watersheds. (4) Among sub-factors, NPP in grassland restoration was driven by grassland cover and SC by precipitation. In terrace farming and forest restoration, NPP was influenced by forests, terraces, and shrubs, while SC depended on slope. Precipitation drove WY across all WMPs. These findings highlight the need to prioritize modifiable factors—such as landscape, vegetation, and water management—in ecological restoration, providing key insights for improving efforts in fragile environments.