Covid-19 Time Series from October 2022 to October 2024. Sars-cov-2 Is Not seasonal, but covid-19 Shows Seasonal Patterns of Social and Immune Origin

Background: The seasonal variations in the community of covid-19 cases in the current endemic situation are unknown. Objective: To study of seasonal variations (those occurring regularly at certain times of the year) of covid-19 cases Methodology: An observational, longitudinal and prospective study of covid-19 time series of cases from October 1, 2022 to October 1, 2024, in a general medicine office in Toledo, Spain. Results: 76 cases of covid-19 were included from October 2022 to September 2023, and 54 from October 2023 to October 2024. Three waves with no seasonal pattern were observed: in autumn 2022 (statistically significant vs. autumn cases) 2023), in summer 2023 (not significant compared to summer 2024, which also had a relatively high number of cases), and in spring 2024 (statistically significant vs. cases in spring 2023). Conclusion: In a general practice setting in Toledo, Spain, the monitoring of covid-19 cases from autumn 2022 to summer 2024 shows variations over time with waves followed by valleys, of irregular distribution in the series, not constituting a seasonal pattern that is repeated every year, except a high number of cases during the summers. However, one must be cautious when extrapolating general rules due to the occurrence of few events and the short observation time frame.