“The key issue is a land question.” – Five decades of forest cover change in the Mount Elgon protected area system, Uganda

Abstract Deforestation remains one of the most imminent threats to biodiversity in the tropics. As such, its causes and dynamics need to be studied and understood to put a halt to further forest loss and degradation. In tropical countries such as Uganda, agricultural expansion and wood fuel demand are its leading drivers. While the establishment of protected areas is a key tool in conserving remaining forest biodiversity, results indicate that current management does not sufficiently provide alternatives to forest resources utilised by households and income provided from timber and non-timber forest products. Beyond safeguarding ecosystems, protected areas need to ensure the sustainable socioeconomic development of adjacent communities for effective biodiversity conservation - however, both management and research often neglect to consider all dimensions. In this study, we analysed five decades of forest cover change in the Mount Elgon region, Uganda, by conducting a remote sensing analysis of its protected areas using Landsat MSS and TM data from 1973–2023 in combination with literature and subsequent interview analysis to consider both the ecological and socioeconomic dimension. We applied a random forest approach to differentiate forest and non-forest areas and carried out a pixel-based change detection analysis to differentiate temporal and spatial changes. Throughout the study period of 50 years, forest cover has evolved dynamically within the boundaries of the protected areas of Mount Elgon. A significant decline was observed in both Mount Elgon National Park with a loss of −5.98% (−.46.83km 2 ) and Mount Elgon Biosphere Reserve with a loss of −14.96% (−134.33km 2 ). Our results showcase a cycle of deforestation and afforestation that could be tied to a series of development initiatives, re-demarcation of boundaries, changes in management and recurring evictions. Overall, the results lead to the conclusion that the lack of sustainable and efficient management and funding has fostered the rate of deforestation and accelerated ecological degradation in the region, but that existing problems are also rooted in the land tenure history of the region. We recommend the proper implementation of participatory and long-term management approaches on the ground and to address the land rights issue to contribute to both socioeconomic well-being and sustainable conservation outcomes.