Operational Dynamics in Uncertain Supply Chain Networks: A Fuzzy-Based Risk Mitigation Strategy

The bullwhip effect, driven by uncertain customer demands, often causes the supply chain network operation to deviate from the stationary level, i.e., the instability nonlinear operational dynamics. This article proposes a fuzzy-based bullwhip effect mitigation strategy to stabilize supply chain network operations, thereby assisting risk decision-making. First, a new fuzzy control model of the bullwhip effect is proposed. Compared with the existing benchmark models, the proposed model has two potential advantages. 1) It is more general to quantify operational and behavioral causes simultaneously rather than only one. 2) Proactively incorporating operational experience into the feedback has the potential to enhance control performance against bullwhip effect. Then, the studied system can be deemed as a closed-loop control system. Furthermore, a series of criteria are provided for the existence of fuzzy control strategies to stabilize the closed-loop system with the bullwhip effect reduction. Finally, simulations verify the advantages and effectiveness of proposed strategies.