Correlated Attention in Transformers for Multivariate Time Series

Multivariate time series (MTS) analysis prevails in real-world applications such as finance, climate science and healthcare. The various self-attention mechanisms, the backbone of the state-of-the-art Transformer-based models, efficiently discover the temporal dependencies, yet cannot well capture the intricate cross-correlation between different features of MTS data, which inherently stems from complex dynamical systems in practice. To this end, we propose a novel correlated attention mechanism, which not only efficiently captures feature-wise dependencies, but can also be seamlessly integrated within the encoder blocks of existing well-known Transformers to gain efficiency improvement. In particular, correlated attention operates across feature channels to compute cross-covariance matrices between queries and keys with different lag values, and selectively aggregate representations at the sub-series level. This architecture automates representation learning of not only instantaneous but also lagged cross-correlations, while inherently capturing time series auto-correlation. When combined with prevalent Transformer baselines, correlated attention mechanism constitutes a better alternative for encoder-only architectures and achieves state-of-the-art results in imputation and classification.