High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation

State-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future<sup>1</sup>. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation<sup>2-4</sup>, with some attributing a large fraction of this change to anthropogenic influences<sup>3,5</sup>. Conversely, certain researchers have underlined that Mediterranean precipitation exhibits considerable spatiotemporal variability driven by atmospheric circulation patterns<sup>6,7</sup> maintaining stationarity over the long term<sup>8,9</sup>. These conflicting perspectives underscore the need for a comprehensive assessment of precipitation changes in this region, given the profound social, economic and environmental implications. Here we show that Mediterranean precipitation has largely remained stationary from 1871 to 2020, albeit with significant multi-decadal and interannual variability. This conclusion is based on the most comprehensive dataset available for the region, encompassing over 23,000 stations across 27 countries. While trends can be identified for some periods and subregions, our findings attribute these trends primarily to atmospheric dynamics, which would be mostly linked to internal variability. Furthermore, our assessment reconciles the observed precipitation trends with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations, neither of which indicate a prevailing past precipitation trend in the region. The implications of our results extend to environmental, agricultural and water resources planning in one of the world's prominent climate change hotspots<sup>10</sup>.

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Journal
Nature
Published
2025-03-12
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08576-6
Citations
62
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
68.53

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article

High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation

Salah Sahabi Abed, Jorge Lorenzo‐Lacruz, Ricardo Machado Trigo, María Carmen Llasat et al.
62 citations
Nature
Climate variability and models
68.53
article

High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation

Salah Sahabi Abed, Jorge Lorenzo‐Lacruz, Ricardo Machado Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, Fergus Reig, Mohamed Elmehdi Saidi, Luis Gimeno‐Sotelo, Sara Moutia, Iván Noguera, Yannis Markonis, Murat Türkeş, Иван Радевски, Karam Alsafadi, María Adell-Michavila, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Brigitte Dubuisson, İsmail Dabanlı, Slavica Radovanović, Amar Halifa‐Marín, Soumaya Ben Rached, Piero Lionello, Nikοs Mamassis, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Magí Franquesa, Beatriz Fernández‐Duque, David Barriopedro, José Carlos González Hidalgo, Miguel Andres-Martin, Lilia Bocheva, Aleksandra Stevkov, S. Hodžić, Fernando Domínguez‐Castro, Ricardo García‐Herrera, Yves Tramblay, Santiago Beguerı́a, Veronica Manara, Amina Boucetta, Ali Salem Eddenjal, Wafae Badi, Sorin Cheval, Abbas Fayad, Luís Gimeno, Alexandru Dumitrescu, Raquel Nieto, El Mahdi El Khalki, Aurélien Ribes, Vera Potopová, Miguel M. Lima, José M. Garrido‐Pérez, Michele Brunetti, Ahmed El Kenawy, Aleksandra Kržič, M. Y. Luna, Silvana Stevkova, Shifa Mathbout, Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano, Dhais Peña‐Angulo, Safwan Mohammed, Maurizio Maugeri, Leonardo Patalen, César Azorín-Molina, Mirjana Ivanov, Siham Bataineh, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Fayez Ahmad Abdulla, S. M. Robaa, Renato Bertalanič, Rabeb Selmi
article en
62 citations

Abstract

State-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future<sup>1</sup>. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation<sup>2-4</sup>, with some attributing a large fraction of this change to anthropogenic influences<sup>3,5</sup>. Conversely, certain researchers have underlined that Mediterranean precipitation exhibits considerable spatiotemporal variability driven by atmospheric circulation patterns<sup>6,7</sup> maintaining stationarity over the long term<sup>8,9</sup>. These conflicting perspectives underscore the need for a comprehensive assessment of precipitation changes in this region, given the profound social, economic and environmental implications. Here we show that Mediterranean precipitation has largely remained stationary from 1871 to 2020, albeit with significant multi-decadal and interannual variability. This conclusion is based on the most comprehensive dataset available for the region, encompassing over 23,000 stations across 27 countries. While trends can be identified for some periods and subregions, our findings attribute these trends primarily to atmospheric dynamics, which would be mostly linked to internal variability. Furthermore, our assessment reconciles the observed precipitation trends with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations, neither of which indicate a prevailing past precipitation trend in the region. The implications of our results extend to environmental, agricultural and water resources planning in one of the world's prominent climate change hotspots<sup>10</sup>.

NatureVol. 639(8055)
Cadi Ayyad University (MA), Universidad Complutense de Madrid (ES), Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (ES), Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (HR), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), University of Debrecen (HU), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES), University of Lisbon (PT), University of Salento (IT), Cairo University (EG), Jordan University of Science and Technology (JO), Mansoura University (EG), Universidad de La Rioja (ES), National Technical University of Athens (GR), Université Fédérale de Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées (FR), University of Milan (IT), Xiamen University (CN), European University Cyprus (CY), Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZ), Universidad de Zaragoza (ES), Slovenian Environment Agency (SI), Centro de Supercomputación de Galicia (ES), Generalitat Valenciana (ES), University of Saskatchewan (CA), UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB), Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (IT), Administraţia Naţională de Meteorologie (RO), Centre d'Investigacions sobre Desertificació (ES), National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (BG), Czech Academy of Sciences, Global Change Research Institute (CZ), Météo-France (FR), The Federal Institute for Geology (BA), Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (ES), Institute of public health of Republic of Macedonia (MK), Office National de la Météorologie (DZ), Direction de la Météorologie Nationale (MA), Estación Experimental de Aula Dei (ES), Regulatory Agency for Electronic Communications and Postal Services (RS), National Institute of Meteorology (TN), Instituto de Geociencias (ES), National Research Council (IT), Libyan Academy (LY), Canmore Museum and Geoscience Centre (CA), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR), Boğaziçi University (TR), Istanbul Technical University (TR), Technical University of Crete (GR), University of Montenegro (ME), Universidade de Vigo (ES), Universitat de Barcelona (ES), Hassania School of Public Works (MA), Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje (MK)
European Commission, China Scholarship Council, Istanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Ministerio para la Transición Ecológica y el Reto Demográfico
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 0%
Climate variability and models
68.53
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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