Spillover Effects and Influencing Factors of Forest Carbon Storage in the Context of Regional Coordinated Development: A Case Study in Guangdong Province

Clarifying the spatial relationships and impact mechanisms of forest carbon storage is essential for designing carbon sink policies and promoting coordinated regional and sustainable development. Using panel data from 21 cities in Guangdong Province between 2012 and 2021, this study employs the forest accumulation expansion method, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), and spatial econometric models to investigate the distribution, spillover effects, and impact mechanisms of forest carbon storage. The results show the following: (1) During the study period, forest carbon storage in Guangdong Province exhibited a fluctuating upward trend and notable regional disparities, with the highest levels observed in the northern region. (2) Forest carbon storage exhibits spatial correlation characteristics and a positive spillover effect, with a value of 0.2394. (3) Temperature has a negative spillover effect on forest carbon storage, while gross regional product demonstrates a negative direct effect. In contrast, labor and afforestation are key factors that possess significant positive direct and spillover effects. Therefore, in developing forest carbon sinks, it is recommended that the government implement adaptation strategies and strengthen inter-city cooperation to promote sustainable development.