Study on the Spatial Spillover Effect of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Beibu Gulf City Cluster and Its Influencing Factors

Analyzing the spatial spillover effect of agricultural carbon emissions in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration reveals the transmission pathways and key factors influencing agricultural carbon emissions across various regions. This, in turn, provides targeted policy recommendations for government bodies and relevant decision-makers. Using panel data from the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration between 2012 and 2021, this paper conducts spatial correlation tests to quantitatively analyze the spatial spillover effect of agricultural carbon emissions, exploring their distribution patterns and the factors that influence them. The results are as follows: (1) The cities with the highest total average agricultural carbon emissions do not necessarily align with those having the highest average agricultural carbon emission intensity; a high carbon consumption does not directly correlate with a simultaneous rise in agricultural output. (2) A significant positive spatial correlation exists in agricultural carbon emissions within the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, indicating a spatial clustering effect. (3) Agricultural carbon emissions in most cities in the Beibu Gulf exhibit two clustering trends: "low-low" and "high-high." Understanding these effects and their determinants can serve as a valuable reference for agricultural carbon reduction strategies and targeted policies, not only within the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration but also across the entire country.