Global and Regional Marine Ecosystem Models Reveal Key Uncertainties in Climate Change Projections

Abstract Climate change is affecting ocean temperature, acidity, currents, and primary production, causing shifts in species distributions, marine ecosystems, and ultimately fisheries. Earth system models simulate climate change impacts on physical and biogeochemical properties of future oceans under varying emissions scenarios. Coupling these simulations with an ensemble of global marine ecosystem models has indicated broad decreases of fish biomass with warming. However, regional details of these impacts remain much more uncertain. Here, we employ CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate change impact projections using two Earth system models coupled with four regional and nine global marine ecosystem models in 10 ocean regions to evaluate model agreement at regional scales. We find that models developed at different scales can lead to stark differences in biomass projections. On average, global models projected greater biomass declines by the end of the 21st century than regional models. For both global and regional models, greater biomass declines were projected using CMIP6 than CMIP5 simulations. Global models projected biomass declines in 86% of CMIP5 simulations for ocean regions compared to 50% for regional models in the same ocean regions. In CMIP6 simulations, all global model simulations projected biomass declines in ocean regions by 2100, while regional models projected biomass declines in 67% of the ocean region simulations. Our analysis suggests that improved understanding of the causes of differences between global and regional marine ecosystem model climate change projections is needed, alongside observational evaluation of modeled responses.

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Publication Details

Journal
Earth s Future
Published
2025-03-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ef005537
Citations
12
Primary Topic
Marine and fisheries research
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
13.26
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Global and Regional Marine Ecosystem Models Reveal Key Uncertainties in Climate Change Projections

Heike K. Lotze, Daniele Bianchi, Yunne‐Jai Shin, Olivier Maury et al.
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Earth s Future
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article

Global and Regional Marine Ecosystem Models Reveal Key Uncertainties in Climate Change Projections

Heike K. Lotze, Daniele Bianchi, Yunne‐Jai Shin, Olivier Maury, Jason D. Everett, Nicola Walker, Didier Gascuel, Eric D. Galbraith, Marta Coll, Camilla Novaglio, Lynne Jane Shannon, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros, Juliano Palacios‐Abrantes, Derek P. Tittensor, Tyler D. Eddy, Ryan Heneghan, Steven Mackinson, Julia L. Blanchard, Jonathan C. P. Reum, Jérôme Guiet, Anthony James Richardson, Villy Christensen, Cathy Bulman, Susa Niiranen, Hubert du Pontavice, Andrea Bryndum‐Buchholz, Denisse Fierro‐Arcos, Jan Volkholz, Phoebe A. Woodworth‐Jefcoats, Ricardo Oliveros‐Ramos, Cheryl S. Harrison, Chiara Piroddi, Matthias Büchner, Jeroen Steenbeek, Jacob Schewe, William W. L. Cheung
article en
12 citations

Abstract

Abstract Climate change is affecting ocean temperature, acidity, currents, and primary production, causing shifts in species distributions, marine ecosystems, and ultimately fisheries. Earth system models simulate climate change impacts on physical and biogeochemical properties of future oceans under varying emissions scenarios. Coupling these simulations with an ensemble of global marine ecosystem models has indicated broad decreases of fish biomass with warming. However, regional details of these impacts remain much more uncertain. Here, we employ CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate change impact projections using two Earth system models coupled with four regional and nine global marine ecosystem models in 10 ocean regions to evaluate model agreement at regional scales. We find that models developed at different scales can lead to stark differences in biomass projections. On average, global models projected greater biomass declines by the end of the 21st century than regional models. For both global and regional models, greater biomass declines were projected using CMIP6 than CMIP5 simulations. Global models projected biomass declines in 86% of CMIP5 simulations for ocean regions compared to 50% for regional models in the same ocean regions. In CMIP6 simulations, all global model simulations projected biomass declines in ocean regions by 2100, while regional models projected biomass declines in 67% of the ocean region simulations. Our analysis suggests that improved understanding of the causes of differences between global and regional marine ecosystem model climate change projections is needed, alongside observational evaluation of modeled responses.

Earth s FutureVol. 13(3)
NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (US), Griffith University (AU), Louisiana State University (US), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), University of Tasmania (AU), Dalhousie University (CA), Memorial University of Newfoundland (CA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US), Fisheries and Oceans Canada (CA), Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (GB), Stockholm Resilience Centre (SE), University of British Columbia (CA), Ifremer (FR), University of Cape Town (ZA), University of California, Los Angeles (US), Stockholm University (SE), The University of Queensland (AU), Leibniz Association (DE), UNSW Sydney (AU), Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR), NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Alaska Fisheries Science Center (US), Centre for Marine Socioecology (AU), Joint Research Centre (IT), NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center (US), Ecopath International Initiative (ES), Marine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (FR), Institut de Ciències del Mar (ES), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR), L'Institut Agro (FR), McGill University (CA), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE), Nelson Mandela University (ZA)
Life below water
Openalex Percentile: Top 1%
Marine and fisheries research
13.26
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