Arctic sea-ice loss drives a strong regional atmospheric response over the North Pacific and North Atlantic on decadal scales
Previous studies have suggested that Arctic sea-ice loss can have a profound influence on atmospheric circulation far away from the Arctic. However, there is little scientific consensus on the features of these remote responses, with the opposite impacts reported. Here we present a multi-model analysis of the decadal climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss using state-of-the-art energy conserving methodologies to isolate the impacts of sea-ice decline. We observe weakening of the Aleutian Low and development of a geopotential ridge in the North Pacific, associated with drier winter conditions over the southwest United States. Over the Atlantic, a negative NAO-like response drives wetter winter conditions across the western Mediterranean. These decadal-scale impacts substantially differ from reported centennial-scale responses to Arctic sea-ice loss simulated using non-energy conserving methodologies. Factors such as the timescale of the response and methodologies used to isolate the impacts of disappearing sea-ice cover should be carefully considered when consolidating scientific understanding on the future impacts of changing Arctic. The atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans responds to Arctic sea ice loss on decadal scales, which leads to drier winters in the southwestern US and wetter winters in the western Mediterranean region, suggest analyses of global climate model simulations.
Authors
- Amélie Simon (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0177-9442)
- Dragana Bojovic
- Arthur E. Amaral
- Desislava Petrova (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9129-1787)
- Vladimir Lapin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7302-8539)
- Pablo Ortega (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4135-9621)
- Markus G. Donat (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0608-7288)
- Xavier J. Levine (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4970-7026)
- Ivana Cvijanović (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7745)
- John C. H. Chiang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7723-9544)
- D. D. Lucas (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4649-6967)
- Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6622-4280)
- Rachel H. White (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3650-3019)
- Anne Seidenglanz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8570-4055)
Institutions
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ES)
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (US)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- University of British Columbia (CA)
- Ifremer (FR)
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (GB)
- Université de Bretagne Occidentale (FR)
- Université de Montpellier (FR)
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (ES)
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (NO)
- Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement (FR)
- NORCE Research AS (NO)
- Laboratoire d’Études en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales (FR)
- Laboratory for Ocean Physics and Satellite Remote Sensing (FR)
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ES)
- Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer (FR)
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR)
- UMR Espace-Dev
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (ES)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Communications Earth & Environment
- Published
- 2025-03-11
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02059-w
- Citations
- 4
- Primary Topic
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 5.20
Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy
- Centres de Recerca de Catalunya
- European Commission
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche
- Generalitat de Catalunya
- Ministerio de Asuntos Económicos y Transformación Digital, Gobierno de España
- Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
- Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca
- Agencia Estatal de Investigación
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory