Trump 2.0 and Global Economic Outlook: Implications for The Nigerian Economy and Business In 2025 and Beyond

Trump 2.0, which is the unusual comeback of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States in 2025 after his initial stint as the 45th President has introduced major economic shifts through protectionist policies, increased tariffs, and foreign aid reductions, with significant implications for Nigeria’s economy. The shift in US foreign policy is however not surprising considering the decade long balance of payment problems and persistent debt crisis. This study examines the effects of Trump’s policies on Nigeria’s economic performance, using Dependency Theory and Realism Theory as theoretical frameworks. Dependency Theory highlights Nigeria’s vulnerability to U.S. trade restrictions and aid cuts, while Realism explains Trump’s “America First” stance. The study employs an econometric time series analysis from 1985 to 2023 to estimate the relationship between Nigeria’s economic outlook and U.S. trade policies, focusing on key variables such as tariffs, imported inflation, foreign direct investment (FDI), and exchange rate fluctuations. Findings suggest that increased tariffs and trade barriers could negatively impact Nigeria’s oil exports and manufacturing sector, leading to revenue shortfalls and currency depreciation. Additionally, potential reductions in U.S. foreign aid may strain Nigeria’s budget and social programs. However, these challenges also present opportunities for Nigeria to diversify trade partnerships, strengthen intra-African trade, and boost local industries under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Policy recommendations include fostering economic resilience through industrialization, attracting alternative foreign investments, and implementing sound fiscal policies. Nigeria must strategically reposition itself in the global market to mitigate risks and sustain economic growth amidst shifting U.S. policies. Keywords: U.S. trade protectionism, Nigeria’s economic outlook, foreign direct investment, tariffs, economic diversification